34 PUBLIC GAMING INTERNATIONAL • NOVEMBER/DECEMBER 2025 “Yesterday, all my troubles seemed so far away, now it looks as though they’re here to stay, oh I believe in yesterday.” While there is an urgency in moving forward, the risks to lottery proceeds have been moving onto our patch in droves since the legalization of sports betting in 2017. Let’s do a quick examination of some of the current potent dangers (there will be more people!) and how the Lottery industry (hopefully as a unified industry with shared common goal of providing more money for great causes every year) can react to keep the billions of dollars it provides for education, older Americans, the great outdoors and many more amazing causes intact heading into the World Cup year. “Help! I need somebody…” 1. The (now) traditional competition of online gambling and social games (see the article I wrote on these in the May/June 2025 PGRI issue) are relentless. As a recent sports bettor, I have 5 apps on my phone, each one offering promotions on a daily basis. Perhaps even more important are the free games they run which encourages daily trips back to the app with the allure of significant increases in bonus bets in the future. The impact is amplified as these promotional incentives are applied to online casino-style iGaming. And who knows what the long-term effects of Predictive Markets will have on the entire games-of-chance industry? The CTFC regulated prediction market has already approved Kalshi, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, so how long before others get the authorization. So what can the Lottery industry do? Individual state lotteries could try to explore ways to engage their players on a more regular basis; and if that doesn’t manage to elicit a growth in loyalty, the industry should ensure the launch of a national Powerball app is seen as THE promotional gateway to trying, and hopefully gaining, a more even footing in the Marketing mind of the US consumer. “Let me roll it…” 2. “Skill” market machines at retail. Pandora’s box is open. From a recent study (2024) that Lotto Research conducted with Texas lottery retailers, more than 10% of convenience stores that sold lottery products, also had games of skill on their property. None of these retailers wanted to answer some fairly harmless questions about these ‘grey’ machines that had mysteriously taken up residency in the front (with most in the back) of their establishments. I call <insert profanity>! I also call on the lottery industry as a whole to find a quick way to have legislations passed as soon as possible to stem this national tide of illegal gambling. How much of the proceeds from these so called ‘games of skill’ go to good causes? None. Zero. Zip. Diddly Squat. Is the Lottery industry able to take this issue to the national level, and try to get these games of skill banned on a more global basis? “Listen to what the man says…” 3. The newer threats. Prediction markets / Online Sweepstakes. Prediction markets, also known as betting markets, information markets, decision markets, idea futures or event derivatives, are open markets that enable the prediction of specific outcomes using financial incentives. They are exchangetraded markets established for trading bets in the outcome of various events. The market prices can indicate what the crowd thinks the probability of the event is. My recommendation is to hop on over to https://polymarket.com/ and see the wide-ranging aspects of everyday life you can ‘buy shares’ of. From dates for the government shutdown to end, through to Crypto futures, sports championships and elections, the average American can now wager on practically anything. Even though all the features of gambling are present, Predictive Markets are not regulated as gambling. The growth of the Sweepstakes Casino Market has also been explosive. Market revenue, for example, is projected to climb from $3.4 billion in 2022 to above $4.6 billion by 2025 according to KPMG. The sector’s growth stems directly from its structural design. The model successfully fills a significant regulatory gap across the USA. Real-money online casinos remain prohibited in a vast number of states. The freemium model, which uses virtual currencies, provides players in these regions a legal way to engage with casinostyle games. “You never give me your money…” 4. Slow modernization via online play, debit and tap payments. According to data presented at the excellent PGRI conference in Nashville in early November, 57% of lottery transactions are by cash. However, cash accounts for only approximately 12-14% of all U.S. consumer payments by number, although this figure can vary by region and demographic. In contrast, credit and debit cards dominate transaction value, especially for larger purchases. These data points represent wide discrepancies. They are also where the quickest wins could be sourced for many state jurisdictions (and the big 4 vendors) to gain additional sales with seemingly few barriers, including my home state of New Jersey which currently has only cash payments for its vending machines. Analyzing the five biggest opportunities to help bolster good cause contributions from the Lottery industry for 2026. Simon Jaworski, Founder & CEO, Lotto Research
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