Anti-prediction market group kicks off DC ad blitz as industry ramps up messaging

A new group describing itself as a “market integrity watchdog” rolled out a six-figure ad blitz in Washington, D.C., on Wednesday morning, taking aim at prediction market Kalshi, which has ramped up its own messaging in Washington this year.

The group, called FairPredicts, placed multiple ads Wednesday morning at D.C. metro stations, on mobile box trucks and on social media platforms such as X, written in the same design as Kalshi’s April ad campaign. It said the ads aim to “call out” Kalshi for allegedly deceiving users.

It began just hours before a Senate Commerce subcommittee convened a hearing on gambling and prediction markets called “No Sure Bets: Protecting Sports Integrity in America.” NBC first reported on the group’s launch and ad campaign.

In one ad first shared with The Hill, FairPredicts states, “Kalshi Lie #3: ‘We aren’t the house.’ If Kalshi is not the house, why do they win when you lose?” The ad then claims Kalshi Trading LLC is “trading against you.”

It mimics Kalshi’s bus stop ad last month, which read, “Kalshi Rule #3 … We aren’t the house.”

Kalshi Trading LLC is a separate entity within Kalshi, according to records with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Recent lawsuits against Kalshi have also gone after the entity, alleging it is filling a role similar to that of the house in a traditional gambling operation by providing “liquidity for its markets.”

When asked about these claims, Elisabeth Diana, a spokesperson for Kalshi, told The Hill, “Like any financial market, including the stock market, market makers are industry standard because they help bootstrap liquidity.”

FairPredicts also launched a 15-second ad showing Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour stating there “is no n Kalshi, it’s about 7 percent or lower,” Diana said.house, anybody can win.” A narrator then mentions Kalshi Trading LLC, claiming, “You’re not playing against your neighbor, you’re playing against trillion-dollar market makers.”

Diana said Kalshi Trading is “unprofitable and represents a very small percent of our volume. This is a very common and regulated practice in our industry.” 

FairPredicts is a political nonprofit and is not required to publicly disclose its donors as a result.

“You’ve got to ask who is actually lying to save their monopolies,” Diana added. “It’s not surprising that entrenched interests are seeding false narratives to discredit prediction markets. Smells like a casino or sportsbooks-led effort.”

FairPredicts did not comment when asked about the group’s donors.

Kalshi is also considering legal action against FairPredicts, Diana said.

Later Wednesday, The Hill obtained a document showing Kalshi has sent FairPredicts a cease-and-desist for the statements posted on Kalshilies.com, a part of the FairPredicts website. The company accused FairPredicts of posting “defamatory and false statements.”

As prediction markets become more popular, lawmakers on Capitol Hill have ramped up their scrutiny on them.

Several bills have been introduced to ban insider trading on prediction markets, including among government officials and lawmakers. The Senate unanimously passed a rule earlier this month banning its members from trading on the platforms.

The ads Kalshi released in D.C. last month attempted to quell these concerns, maintaining the platform bans insider trading, doesn’t allow for death markets and operates under U.S. law. 

https://thehill.com/policy/technology/5886755-fairpredicts-ad-blitz-kalshi-dc/