By Bill Miller: 'Prediction markets' siphon $1 billion from state and tribal economies — including Nevada
For decades, Congress and the courts have affirmed that gaming regulation belongs to states and tribal governments. We agree — along with the 41 attorneys general and countless legislators across the country — and support Nevada's Attorney General, Aaron Ford, in calling “sports event contracts” what they are: sports bets. We continue to urge Congress to reaffirm existing law and state and tribal authority by advancing solutions like the bipartisan Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act. Bill Miller is president and CEO of the American Gaming Association.
By Bill Miller
The FIFA World Cup is underway across the United States, drawing millions of fans to stadiums, watch parties and legal sportsbooks. Alongside the excitement, a growing share of “prediction market” platforms have engineered a backdoor into the legal, state- and tribal-regulated sports betting market. By rebranding sports bets as “event contracts” and “derivatives,” these platforms are mass-marketing sports betting as investing while evading the state and tribal regulations that govern the gaming industry and generate critical tax revenue.
Nevadans know a sports bet when they see one. In fact, 80% of Silver State voters say wagers offered by companies such as Kalshi and Polymarket are gambling — not investing. But what voters and policymakers may not realize is the quickly snowballing cost of this marketing deception: Since 2025, “prediction markets” have already siphoned an estimated $1 billion in potential state gaming tax revenue that funds critical community projects in Nevada and across America.
Nevada has a long and well-known history offering and regulating legal sports betting. For the rest of the country, the Supreme Court overturned the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (PASPA) in 2018, giving states the authority to decide whether to legalize sports betting. Since then, 40 jurisdictions have done so and built sophisticated systems overseen by more than 8,400 regulators nationwide. Congress has also long recognized tribal sovereignty in gaming, as the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act (IGRA) established tribal authority to operate gaming as a means of self-sufficiency.
The state- and tribal-regulated sports betting industries generate significant public and tribal funding. In Nevada, legal sports betting generates more than $40 million in tax revenue, funding critical state programs like education and transportation. Tribal gaming also serves as a key economic driver for tribal governments across the country.
The funding for these community services and economies is being undermined by backdoor sports betting through “prediction markets.” In a recent Senate Commerce Subcommittee hearing, a US senator asked if prediction markets are allowed to continue operating as unlicensed sportsbooks, will his state's resources be diminished? The answer is yes.
Prediction markets claim they are offering financial derivatives — instead of a sports wager — and should fall under the regulatory oversight of the Commodity Futures and Trading Commission (CFTC), the agency that regulates markets critical to our nation’s economy. Nevada businesses have long used legitimate commodities markets to hedge real economic risk like fluctuation in energy or silver prices. That is fundamentally different than a bet on a Raiders game.
In a 2024 federal court filing, Kalshi — a “prediction market” operator whose volume consists of nearly 90% sports — admitted that “Congress did not want sports betting to be conducted on derivatives markets.” Now, prediction markets are offering exactly what they previously said they shouldn’t — even marketing it as “sports betting legal in all 50 states.” Just this year, media publication Sportico noted that Kalshi also classified itself as “gambling” in its federal trademark request.
These platforms are making a mockery of congressional intent by seeking CFTC oversight and bypassing federal and Nevada law. When the argument was made at the Senate hearing, lawmakers from both parties scoffed, including Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, who stated that “many simply see prediction markets as a workaround to state gambling laws.”
Earlier this year, 41 state attorneys general, including Nevada's Aaron Ford, sent a letter to the CFTC underscoring that it is sports betting and states have the right to oversee their own gaming industries according to local laws and values. Recently, Nevada Gaming Control Board Chairman Mike Dreitzer made clear: “The law is the law. You can make whatever word salad you want, but it’s gambling. From our perspective, every day that goes by where someone can place a prediction bet is too many days.”
As the United States hosts the FIFA World Cup and betting activity reaches unprecedented levels, it is critical that wagering occurs through legal, state-and tribal-regulated sportsbooks where consumers are protected, operators are accountable, and taxes are returned to local communities. That is the system Nevada policymakers created, and it is the system that should govern sports betting.
This “prediction market” regulatory evasion is a double burden for Nevada’s taxpayers: Not only is the state losing critical revenue but is also spending additional resources defending its sovereignty in court. The problem — and the cost — will amplify if this is allowed to continue.
The legal gaming industry treats sports betting as strictly a form of entertainment. Framing it otherwise is misleading and irresponsible, particularly as prediction markets heavily advertise to students and 18-year-olds. We agree with Rick Wurster, the CEO of brokerage firm Charles Schwab, who said he does not “want young people in our country to think gambling on the Monday Night Football game is the same as investing in stocks and bonds.”
The legal, state- and tribal-regulated gaming market supports 1.8 million American jobs and $18 billion annually in tax revenue across the country. Licensed operators must meet strict standards for integrity monitoring, taxation, oversight and consumer protections.
For decades, Congress and the courts have affirmed that gaming regulation belongs to states and tribal governments. We agree — along with the 41 attorneys general and countless legislators across the country — and support Ford in calling “sports event contracts” what they are: sports bets. We continue to urge Congress to reaffirm existing law and state and tribal authority by advancing solutions like the bipartisan Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act.
Bill Miller is president and CEO of the American Gaming Association.
https://lasvegassun.com/news/2026/jul/08/prediction-markets-siphon-1-billion-from-state-and/