Kalshi’s 18- to 21-Year-Old Users Trade $5.4B as Betting Age Fight Grows
State of Play’s TL;DR
- U.S. residents 18 to 21 have traded more than $5 billion on Kalshi this year.
- The prediction market firm says 18- to 21-year-olds account for about 3% of transactions on the platform.
Americans ages 18 to 21 have traded about $5.4 billion on Kalshi since the start of 2026. That’s intensifying the fight over whether prediction markets should remain open to adults under 21.
Kalshi and similar platforms operate under federal rules that generally allow access from age 18. Casinos and legal sports betting, meanwhile, are restricted to 21 and older in most states. That gap has become a flashpoint as sports-related prediction market contracts grow and industry opponents argue the products function much like unlicensed sports betting.
Kalshi said users ages 18 to 21 account for 3.14% of all transactions on the platform. The company’s total 2026 trading volume has already exceeded $173 billion. About 80% of that volume comes from sports contracts and parlay bets.
Of the under-21 activity, roughly $3.9 billion came from sports contracts and parlays.
Sports contracts are driving the age-policy dispute
The age debate is not limited to casino competitors. The NCAA, NFL, NBA, PGA Tour, and other leagues have called for the minimum age for trading prediction contracts to be raised to 21.
Bill Miller, president of the American Gaming Association, said prediction markets offer “a backdoor route to sports betting” in places where the legal gambling age is 21. The association argues Kalshi’s sports contracts are effectively unlicensed sports bets.
Jonathan Michaels, head of a gaming industry consulting firm, said the World Cup disrupted the normal summer slowdown and could help keep trading elevated into football season, which he said will “inevitably affect students.”
Kalshi says it has internal restrictions on account funding and warnings for users whose behavior may indicate risky trading. The company also contributed $2 million to the National Council on Problem Gambling.
Courts, regulators, and rivals are split on a 21-plus standard
The responsible gambling dispute is also playing out in court. The operation of prediction market platforms is being challenged with support from 44 state attorneys general, dozens of Native American tribes, and casino representatives.
At the same time, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has not supported a 21-plus requirement and is preparing rules that would keep access available at 18.
Some competitors are already taking the stricter route voluntarily. Fanatics limits its prediction market service to users 21 and over. Novig, which was approved by the regulator in June and launched this month, also accepts only users 21 and older.
Novig CEO Jacob Fortinsky said the company adopted that policy after hearing concerns from the NCAA and other leagues, adding that students are “particularly vulnerable to irresponsible trading behavior.” The company has recorded $450 million in trading volume and recently partnered with the New York Mets.
https://www.playusa.com/news/kalshis-18-to-21-year-old-users-trade-5-4b-as-betting-age-fight-grows/
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Young adults who are aren't old enough to legally bet at most casinos and sportsbooks are placing billions of dollars in sports wagers on Kalshi, a federally regulated prediction market.
A CNN analysis estimates users ages 18 to 21 have traded $5.4 billion on Kalshi this year, including about $3.9 billion on sports and parlays.
It's fueling growing concerns about a legal loophole that allows younger adults to bet on sports through platforms that are federally regulated as financial exchanges rather than gambling sites.
Prediction markets have been regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission rather than state gaming authorities, which means they have been available to anyone 18 and older nationwide.
Sports and parlays account for about 80% of Kalshi’s overall trading volume, and CNN’s analysis found users between 18 and 21 have traded an estimated $3.9 billion in those categories this year.
Kalshi said users between 18 and 21 represent 3.14% of its overall trading volume, which has topped $173 billion this year.
The company said it maintains safeguards, including deposit limits and warnings for users showing risky behavior, and donated $2 million to the National Council for Problem Gambling, according to CNN.
Kalshi and other predictive market trading platforms are facing legal challenges from 44 state attorneys general, dozens of Indian tribes and the casino industry. Several lawsuits argue they should be subject to state gambling laws. Regulators in Nevada even attempted to ban Kalshi.
A federal appeals court ruled Friday, Aug. 28, that states can regulate prediction markets, which is considered the states' largest courtroom victory to date, but legal experts told CNN they believe the dispute will likely need to be settled by the U.S. Supreme Court.