UKGC unable to produce reliable estimate of black market size
The UK Gambling Commission (UKGC) has said it is “not yet in a position to make a robust and reliable estimate of the size” of the gambling black market.
The regulator made the admission in the final instalment of its four-part research series on illegal online gambling, bringing together months of analysis into consumer behaviour, market risks, and enforcement efforts.
The latest report in the series, “Estimating the size of the illegal online gambling market,” focuses on the inherent difficulty of quantifying an underground activity.
It notes that while understanding the size of the market is crucial for shaping enforcement and policy, reliable data is scarce and often requires assumptions that limit confidence in any single estimate.
The gaming regulator likened these challenges to those faced by government departments measuring illicit trade in other sectors, such as illegal tobacco.
Although the regulator admits that it has not yet been able to produce an estimate of the market’s total value, it said it has established a broader evidence base and gained valuable insight into the behaviours driving illegal gambling.
The findings from the series show that consumer motivations vary widely, and there is no single factor prompting people to use unlicensed websites.
Some users are unaware they are gambling illegally, which underlines the need for clearer public communication.
Others turn to such sites because they are self-excluded or otherwise restricted from gambling in the regulated market.
Black market targeted through law enforcement efforts
The Commission also found no indication of sustained growth in illegal gambling engagement where reliable data exists.
However, it stressed that the threat remains significant and that a range of disruption tools are being deployed, supported by cooperation with law enforcement, financial institutions, and international partners.
UKGC CEO Andrew Rhodes said that the illegal online gambling market still poses a serious threat to consumers and to the licensed sector.
He stated that while estimating the full scale of the problem is difficult, the UKGC’s understanding has improved, enhancing its ability to disrupt unlawful operators.
Rhodes added that independent research had strengthened the evidence base and improved transparency, while emphasising that progress depends on sustained collaboration across industries.
The regulator reiterated that tackling illegal gambling is a shared responsibility, requiring coordinated effort across government, digital platforms, and the financial system.
While this publication concludes the current research series, the UKGC confirmed that further updates will be provided as its ongoing work evolves.
The initiative marks a step in strengthening the UK’s regulatory framework and deepening understanding of a complex and often hidden threat to consumers.
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