Kalshi eats into sportsbook app download share during NFL Playoffs
At the same time, prediction market platform Kalshi surged to a new high in consumer adoption.
In an analysis by Jordan Bender of Citizens, data covering the Divisional Round period shows that sportsbook operators controlling roughly 99% of the legal US and Canadian sports betting market generated a combined 836,000 app downloads.
This represents an overall 2% decrease from the same period last year.
The downturn extended an established trend, with weekly real-money gaming downloads now declining year over year for 12 consecutive weeks, excluding the impact of the Hard Rock Michigan launch and the Missouri market entry.
Several major sportsbook brands experienced notable softness during the playoff window.
BetMGM downloads fell 25% year over year during the Divisional Round, while Caesars saw an 8% decline. FanDuel recorded a 14% drop, continuing a period of weaker acquisition metrics that began around midseason.
DraftKings stood out as the lone major operator to post marginal growth, with downloads increasing by 1% year over year during the same timeframe.
Bender attributed the uneven results to a heightened focus on profitability, which has limited promotional intensity across most sportsbooks during the latter half of the NFL season.
In contrast, Kalshi emerged as the outlier in the broader sports wagering ecosystem. The prediction market platform accumulated approximately one million app downloads during the NFL playoffs, marking the highest two-week download market share in its history.
Kalshi eats away at conventional sportsbook margins
Kalshi also led all apps during the Divisional Round in absolute download volume, surpassing traditional sportsbook and daily fantasy competitors.
Bender said: “We believe Kalshi is one of the main headwinds for customer acquisition and handle growth across the betting space in recent months, as we estimate the current cannibalising impact on the legal sports betting space is equivalent to 5% of the sports betting handle.”
The report indicates that Kalshi’s expansion is increasingly viewed as a headwind for licensed sportsbook operators.
This shift appears particularly pronounced during marquee events such as the NFL playoffs, when sportsbooks historically rely on elevated consumer acquisition and engagement to offset slower periods elsewhere in the calendar.
Season-to-date figures reinforce the trend. While FanDuel and DraftKings remain the leaders in cumulative sportsbook downloads, both operators are tracking below prior-year levels in several key weeks.
Meanwhile, Hard Rock continued to benefit from earlier market expansion, posting a 43% year over year increase during the Divisional Round, though its gains were not sufficient to offset broader market softness.
The data suggests that consumer behaviour during peak sporting events is evolving, with prediction markets capturing a growing share of user interest.
As sportsbooks recalibrate spending and promotional strategies, the onus will increasingly fall on operators to respond to shifting demand patterns that now extend beyond traditional fixed-odds wagering models.
https://next.io/news/betting/sportsbook-apps-struggle-during-nfl-playoffs/