AGA Projects Record March Madness Betting Amid Integrity Concerns

Ads From Prediction Markets Pushing Sportsbooks' Advertising Aside

Following Selection Sunday, the American Gaming Association (AGA) estimates that Americans will legally bet $3.3 billion on this year’s March Madness games.

This marks a 54% increase over the past three years. Moreover, AGA officials said it reflects increasing consumer confidence in regulated wagering options.

“March Madness is the highlight of the college basketball season, and fans are gearing up for a month of tournament action,” AGA President and CEO Bill Miller said.

“Fans continue to engage with legal, state- and tribal-regulated sports betting in record numbers during one of the biggest moments on the sports calendar.”

More Prediction Market Ads, More Responsible Gaming Concerns

The increasing numbers come as prediction market platforms have rapidly increased sports advertising. Online sportsbook ad impressions declined nearly 14% in 2025. However, impressions tied to prediction market advertising surged dramatically, the AGA reported.

“With the expansion of prediction market advertising, nearly one in five (15%) digital sports betting ads seen by consumers last year did not comply with state-mandated responsible gaming messages,” the AGA wrote in the annual report. “Kalshi alone became the third-largest sports betting advertiser by digital impressions in 2025.”

According to the AGA, nearly half of the online sports betting ads Americans saw during the first two months of 2026 didn’t comply with state gambling regulations. The commercials from prediction markets lacked responsible gambling messaging required by law.

Additionally, Kalshi is currently the most visible sports betting brand by digital ad impressions. The AGA found consumers were exposed to the company’s ads about 5.2 billion times this year. By contrast, Americans saw just 2.9 billion impressions for FanDuel, the most-frequent sportsbook advertiser.

State & Tribal Sports Betting Advertising Drops

At the same time that prediction market advertising is increasing, overall sportsbook advertising continued a multi-year decline. Some of the findings include:

• Total sports betting advertising spend fell 5% year over year.
• Sports betting ad volume across all channels declined 1% and is 27% lower than the 2021 peak.
• Sports betting television advertising volume fell 9% and has decreased 50% since 2021.

“Confidence in your wager – and in the integrity of the games – starts with a fair and compliant betting market,” Miller said. “That’s why it’s so important that everyone offering sports bets in the US comply with state and tribal regulations, ensuring that consumers are protected.”

Prediction markets have argued their platforms are different from traditional sports betting and are already regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The companies have been embroiled in controversy in recent months, including engaging in lawsuits with state gaming regulators. In response, some federal legislators urge for more regulation on the industry.

Integrity Questioned As March Madness Approaches

As betting becomes more widespread, the American sports betting landscape has seen numerous controversies. And as March Madness approaches, a new annual national poll from Sacred Heart University found widespread concern about the expanding influence of sports gambling on collegiate sports.

According to the poll, a majority of Americans believe betting is affecting the integrity of college basketball. Nearly 66% are concerned college athletes may face pressure tied to betting surrounding games. According to the poll:

• 9% believe gambling affects the integrity of college basketball either “significantly” or “somewhat”
• 2% are at least “somewhat concerned” college athletes may be pressured by gambling
• 2% believe college students are at higher risk for problematic gambling behavior compared to the general population

“College athletics occupy a unique place in American sports culture,” said Andrew Miller, Sacred Heart sports communication and media graduate program director.

“Americans may accept legalized sports betting overall, but they clearly feel differently when the pressures associated with gambling reach student-athletes.”

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